U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus01 kwns 200053 
Storm Prediction Center ac 200052 

Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0752 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018 

Valid 200100z - 201200z 

..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across the Central 

Severe thunderstorm complex should propagate across eastern Colorado 
and western Kansas tonight. Large hail and damaging winds are the 
primary threats. 

..Central Plains... 

Multiple thunderstorm clusters have evolved ahead of a pronounced 
short-wave trough over the Central Plains this evening. Over the 
next few hours it appears an upward evolving complex of storms 
should materialize over western Kansas where an mesoscale convective system is expected by late 
evening. 00z sounding from ddc exhibits steep lapse rates and ample 
buoyancy for robust convection. With A Reservoir of instability in 
place across southeast Colorado/southwest Kansas it appears the mesoscale convective system should 
begin to propagate southeast toward northwest OK. Confidence in this 
scenario is increasing given the progression of the short-wave 
trough into this region by 20/06z. 

.Darrow.. 06/20/2018 


Mesoscale Discussion

acus11 kwns 200441 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 200441 

Mesoscale discussion 0800 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1141 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018 

Areas affected...southern/central Kansas...northwest 
Oklahoma...eastern Oklahoma Panhandle...far southeast Colorado...far 
northeast Texas Panhandle 

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 193...194... 

Valid 200441z - 200645z 

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 193, 194 

Summary...severe threat continues across severe thunderstorm watches 
0193 and 0194, but a slow downward trend in convective intensity is 
expected during the overnight hours. 

Discussion...an organized mesoscale convective system is propagating southeast across severe 
thunderstorm watches 0193 and 0194, with severe wind gusts over 60 
knots observed within the strongest portion of the line from gray to 
Pawnee counties within the last hour. Gusts up to 65 knots were also 
recently observed in Seward County, Kansas. 

With a strong surge of the cold pool in progress, along with 
adequate effective bulk shear oriented normal to the mesoscale convective system leading 
line, a few more instances of damaging wind gusts are possible 
within the next few hours. Still, recent rap point forecast 
soundings indicate a stabilizing boundary layer, and a downward 
trend in intense cores along the leading line of the mesoscale convective system were noted 
near ddc in the latest few radar scans. As such, a slow downward 
trend in severity is likely as the mesoscale convective system slowly weakens throughout the 

.Squitieri/jirak/guyer.. 06/20/2018 

..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Latitude...Lon 36390155 36750186 37040244 37350293 37750298 38300287 
38310224 37910153 37710108 37930039 38209999 38409940 
38909937 39239919 39579849 39679803 39419742 39209701 
38999654 38559631 38229631 37959659 37519710 37099769 
36649825 36229886 35909940 35910023 36010108 36390155